Down and Out in Ohio

RCP shows Bush is down in Ohio. For a Republican to be down in Ohio this late in the game is real bad news. Dick Nixon's it-voters were the housewives of Dayton, Ohio. He knew he needed them to win the election. I think the housewives of Dayton aren't with Bush right now.

How could they be? They are being blitzed by Left-leaning 527s. And the Bushies, in the debates and in the air wars, have let so many attacks go unanswered.

No one can say that Harold Ickes is just a stooge for Hillary-- his baby, the Media Fund, is killing Bush in the swing states.

Now reports suggest that BC04 is ceding PA to Kerry-- I hope that isn't so. If they lose OH and stop contesting PA, BC04 is going to have to run the table in the Upper Midwest-- not a likely outcome-- to win.

If Bush loses, it will be because he failed to communicate and failed to mount an effective counter-insurgency-- not just in Iraq, but in the swing states. The Swiftees and Sinclair don't seem to me to be enough. But maybe it is, Hugh Hewitt , who may or may not be Bush's Baghdad Bob, thinks things are going well.

Here's Hugh on the state of the race:

It is not correct to say the election is 20 days away. The election has begun. I voted for the president this morning by absentee, and all across the country and indeed the globe, people are already voting. Which is why defining "the choice" in bold terms and simple declaratory sentences matters a great deal. The debate tonight matters more than the first three because it occurs as the absentees begin to arrive and get returned. The president's many advantages can probably not be undone except for a massive mistake, so I expect an energetic but nevertheless defensive approach to tonight's exchanges which will once again disappoint the base. If Kerry makes the mistake of believing the polls that show him closing, he'll also play defense. If, as I suspect, he comes out swinging because of the monumental error of "terrorism = nuisance", that will telegraph that the real polls --the ones the campaigns do for themselves-- continue to tell a terrible picture for Kerry.

What's the best indicator of Kerry's troubles? He and Edwards are campaigning and advertising almost exclusively in blue states, except for Florida and Ohio, and while recent polls in Ohio (though not in Florida) show good numbers for Kerry, the president's coming blitz through Ohio will get the state right back to where it was when the Columbus Dispatch poll had Bush up 7. Bush, on the other hand, is in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota etc.

Is Hugh cocooning or right to be this upbeat? God, I hope he's right.